A billion-plus covid-19 shots in 2021. Can Serum Institute do it?

The Indian vaccine-maker may account for almost half the world’s supply

update 4 feb 2021 -johnson and johnson announces it may have one shot vaccine storable normal refrigeration- us supply by summer  

update china's 2 vaccines sinopharm, sinovac - rated between 50%-75% in stopping infection but 90+% effective in making corona virus more serioys than other flus- they only nee a normal fridge but styill need 2 doses- countries proving their efficacy include uae- who to judge on them by march- 

most covid vaccines need 2 doses

data not fully collected on optimal time interval- 3 months is likely practical; 4-6 weeks  hypothesised optimal

vaccines most likely to vaccinate largest number of people

astra zeneca, and may be johnson and johnson -on stable normal temperatorues- astra production partnership through gave massive reionally eg india

china's vaccine and russian sputnik - the west claims these have not been tested formally though population live results will soon be in

the eu has spread likely false claims about astra zeneca suggesting its not effectives for over 60s- this likely misinformation caused by less random testing of elders-again this will coon be proven by real data

generation vaccines likely to vaccinate rich people eg americans- implied as more widely effective but no definitive evidence- complicated by abnormal storage temperatures

pfizer

moderna

for uptodate info look at lancet or new england journal of medecine

major mistakes made

western govs misled that main transfusion by touch/surfaces not shared air droplets- crowded rooms-main but incomplete protection masks

failing to close down international travel early enough to prevent being a covid nations

failure to app tracing data

failure to ai model at all levels from last mile to federal

watch this space more than hudred vaccines in test - some may need to prevent new variants though as of feb 2021 it seems likely variants still work

-in reality, it may be all covid-ending vaccines need annual distribution like flu -however the hope is that dynamics such as herd immunity and full tracing may terminate the disease by 2025 but only if we can reach poor as well as rich nations

if you think we have made errors in this summary rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk - if we use your comment do you want to be anonymous or what link do you want us to publish

thank goodness for evolutionary biologists.

 background where the vaccine innovations came from in 2020 -

unite vaccine races entrepreneurialrevolution.city

economisthealth.com alibrac.com

 2021  big challenge who'll buy from who; who has applied ai to distribution models especially where deep freze and double dosiing needed

hungary buying russia's sputnik

india wants uk's astra zeneca

in pop terms probably largest number of vaccinations will come from china

usa pfizer failed to model distribution maps even though 6 months could have worked out double distribution challenge of cultural cold storage and double dose per person

eu' buying as one block - wow what a challenge of distribution that will be?

 www.astra.place 

AstraZeneca Estonia to participate in VaccineGuard pilot Estonia, Hungary and Iceland are the first countries to sign up to the new platform supporting the global COVID-...

its interesting to me that iceland and estonia are leading this mobile app - while i expect both countries have very good mobile coverage its worth keeping an eye on

estonia is one of the great surprises of government going digital